000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210308
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT OCT 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N104W OR ABOUT 190 NM S OF 
MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING W 10 KT. THE LOW REMAINS IN AN 
ENVIRONMENT OF EASTERLY SHEAR AS IS INDICATED IN THE SHARP EDGE 
ON THE E SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER 
APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING MORE THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY...AND 
MAY BE MOVING CLOSER TO THE MORE OBVIOUS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. 
HOWEVER...RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES STILL SUGGEST A DISORGANIZED 
CONVECTIVE BLOB WITH NO WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE. GIVEN 
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION... 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 
HRS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-18N 
BETWEEN 105W-108W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N85W 14N97W 10N105W 11N127W 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 9N BETWEEN 83W-94W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE N PART OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 25N127W AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. A BROAD SWATH OF DRY AIR EXTENDS UP TO 
600-700 NM S/SW OF THE LOW AND THEN TURNS NEWD TOWARDS THE BAJA 
PENINSULA. THE LOW-LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA 
AS WELL...AND SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR N OF 23N E OF 123W. A 
WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N120W TO 8N140W OVER THE 
ITCZ...AND ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
NEAR THE AXIS W OF 130W.

FARTHER E...THE UPPER FLOW IS MAINLY EASTERLY AND IS DOMINATED 
BY A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG 97W AND IS 
MOVING SLOWLY W EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. AN AXIS OF MOISTURE 
EXTENDS N/NE OF THE TROUGH AND IS ALLOWING SCATTERED TSTMS TO 
DEVELOP OFF THE MEXICAN/CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST BETWEEN COSTA 
RICA AND THE LOW NEAR 16N104W.

$$
BERG