000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201523
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI OCT 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS ALONG 10N85W 7N98W 11N115W 8N135W 8N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 86W 
AND 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 128W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF ABOUT 15N 
W OF 115W WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM A NEARLY 
STATIONARY CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 25N127W SW TO 
15N138W. ANOTHER SMALL TIGHTLY WOUND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED NEAR 31N136W AND IS MOVING SW 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN ASSOCIATION 
WITH THE TROUGH. AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH A JET BEGINS NEAR 
14N135W AND CONTINUES NE THROUGH 20N124W TO CENTRAL BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. THE JET HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24 
HOURS. 

OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA A WEAKENING UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 17N95W TO 
18N110W TO 13N120W. MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE 
DEEP TROPICS S OF ABOUT 8N BETWEEN 85W AND 115W. A BROAD AREA OF 
TURNING AT THE LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY 
OF 15N101W. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
IS LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 18N104.5W 14.5N103W 
LINE.

$$
CAB