000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200943
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI OCT 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 10N85W 7N95W 12N115W 8N133W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 105W...AND 
WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 127W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N130W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE DIVING SWD NW OF THE LOW BETWEEN 130W AND 
140W. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET LIES S OF THE LOW 
NEAR 12N128W...WITH THE JET PICKING UP STEAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS 
CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW 
ACROSS MEXICO TO 13N120W. THIS RIDGE AXIS LIES JUST N OF A SURFACE 
LOW NEAR 15N100W AND DIVERGENT FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY S OF 18N IN THE ERN PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
INCLUDING THE ITCZ...WITH THE MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE CONVECTION 
LYING ROUGHLY ALONG 7N BETWEEN 85W AND 100W.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LIES ALONG THE W COAST OF 
MEXICO FROM 20N105W TO 11N98W WITH A WEAK 1007 MB LOW ANALYZED NEAR 
15N100W. EARLIER TODAY SEVERAL LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC SWIRLS APPEARED 
THEN DISSIPATED IN THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AROUND THE LOW BUT LITTLE 
OR NO CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED.

$$
MUNDELL