000 AXPZ20 KNHC 192205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU OCT 19 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 11N85W 14N97W 12N120W 9N130W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 10N84W 7N93W 12N117W 8N137W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE N OF 10N BETWEEN 96W AND 103W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED W OF THE AREA AT 19N150W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N ALONG 30N145W TO AN UNSTABLE RIDGE CREST COLLAPSING E AT 40N141W. DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPILLING ANTICYCLONICALLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE RIDGE AND OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 28N W OF 127W. THE ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO EXTENDS SE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 138W. A POSITIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N112W AND CONTINUES SW THROUGH AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 22N133W WITH THE TROUGH THEN CONTINUING S TO A BASE NEAR 13N134W. THE UPPER CYCLONE IS SHIFTING SW WITH TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N86W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS OLD MEXICO ALONG 21N TO A CREST OVER THE E PAC AT 18N114W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR A LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 16N100W TO 10N95W. SEVERAL LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC SWIRLS HAVE APPEARED AND THEN DISSIPATED ALONG THE TROUGH TODAY. EXCEPT FOR THE MOISTURE OVER THE NW PORTION MENTIONED ABOVE... THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY NW OF A LINE FROM 10N140W TO 24N104W TO 30N96W. A TROPICAL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 8N125W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 8N132W ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 124W AND 135W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OBSERVED FROM THE EQUATOR AT 92W TO 7N83W. $$ NELSON