000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191537
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU OCT 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N85W 13N105W 12N117W 9N128W 9N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 
85W AND 88W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 101W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 116W 
AND 118W...AND 126W AND 130W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DOMINATES THE 
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 24N129W AND IS MOVING SLOWLY SW. A 
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO NEAR 16N140W WITH 
CYCLONIC FLOW NOTED FROM N OF ABOUT 15N W OF 120W. A WEAK JET IS 
LOCATED ON THE SE SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR 
15N135W TO 22N120W ACROSS S CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE ALONG THE JET. WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG SUBSIDENCE NW OF THE JET AXIS. 

AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT IS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL 
GULF OF MEXICO AND HAS BEEN POSITIONED HERE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER SW INTO THE E 
PACIFIC ALONG A 16N102W 12N125W LINE. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IS 
AIDING A LARGE AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION CENTERED ALONG 98W N OF 
10N INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FAIRLY 
STRONG OVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF THE RIDGE AXIS W OF 100W.

$$
CAB