000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190907
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU OCT 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 10N85W 13N100W 13N110W 8N130W 8N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF 15N95W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS E OF 105W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS NEAR 118W AND 
132W.

...DISCUSSION...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW MEXICO TO A 
CUT-OFF LOW NEAR 28N131W. THE COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH AND CUT-OFF 
LOW CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ENTIRE NW 
PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...N OF 15N W OF 100W. THE REMANTS OF A 
COLD FRONT ARE A DIFFUSE LINE OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM 
SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 23N135W. THE ITCZ HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD WITH 
A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN CONVECTION IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING OF 
THE UPPER TROUGH AND A STRONGER JET NEAR NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA.

FARTHER E...A LARGE MID LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO 
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW ACROSS MEXICO TO 11N120W...AND FAIRLY 
STRONG EASTERLIES RUNNING WWD FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE FAR E 
PACIFIC WATERS. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WSW LOW-LEVEL 
FLOW S OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 
LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION CENTERED ALONG 11N WITH A MAJOR FLAREUP 
IN CONVECTION OCCURRING S OF MEXICO NEAR 15N95W. QUIKSCAT DATA AND 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AN ACTIVE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...BUT NO 
CLOSED CIRCULATIONS HAVE YET EMERGED FROM THE WLY WIND ZONE S OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS. ONSHORE FLOW SE OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOIST 
AIR TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA.

$$
MUNDELL