000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181515
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED OCT 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
NONE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W 13N99W 12N109W 7N130W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 86W-92W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 120 NM 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 97W-104W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 
NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 111W-126W.

...DISCUSSION...
A RATHER AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS BECOME 
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE E PAC. AN ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED W OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WELL N  
ALONG 144W. A LARGE STRONGLY ELONGATED TROUGH LIES TO THE E OF 
THE RIDGE WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW U.S. SOUTHWESTWARD 
TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N129W. A FEW SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO 
ROTATE THRU ADVECTING PLENTY OF DRY STABLE AIR WHICH NOW COVERS 
NEARLY THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 17N. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK 
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SWD FROM THE CENTRAL BAJA 
W TO 24N126W. AN INCREASE IN NLY WINDS AND A BAND OF 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE ERN 
PORTION OF THE REGION REMAINS ON THE S AND SW PERIPHERY OF AN 
UPPER HIGH WHICH IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF NEAR 
27N87W. SLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SPREADING SOME DEBRIS UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TOWARDS SOUTHERN MEXICO.   

ELSEWHERE AT THE SFC...A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 40N136W. 
SFC RIDGING IS SLIGHTLY BLEMISHED BY THE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. 
THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THRU LATE THU 
THEN WEAKEN AND RETREAT NE THRU SUN WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO 
SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY FRI AND THIS WEEKEND.

$$
CANGIALOSI