000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160923
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON OCT 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W/87W N OF 3N IS MOVING W 15 KT.  AN AREA 
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 
8.4N87.5W.  THE ACTIVITY SHOWS NO CYCLONIC ORGANIZATION AND NONE 
IS FORECAST.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...5N77W 8N95W 10N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 8.8N88.7W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 
14.2N95.8W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM OF 15.5N104.9W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTH OF 20N.  DRY AND CLOUD 
FREE AIR IS OBSERVED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL IMPLYING 
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THIS AREA.  OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS 
OBSERVED NORTH OF 23N FROM 115W TO 128W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS IS OBSERVED NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 28N AND ELSEWHERE 
NORTH OF 20N SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS IS OBSERVED.

THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY A BROAD RIDGE IN THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.  DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS SOUTH OF 20N 
EAST OF 110W WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND 
EMBEDDED AREA OF CONVECTION.  THE COMPUTER MODEL SHOWS NONE OF 
THE AREA DEVELOPING INTO TROPICAL CYCLONES WITHIN THE FORECAST 
FUTURE.

SURFACE...
WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 115W.  ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH 
IS ANALYZED.

$$
LL