000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160325
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON OCT 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W N OF 4N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE IS TIED TO THE ITCZ AS DESCRIBED BELOW.
THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE 
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN WITHIN THE NEXT 
36-48 HRS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N79W 8N90W 15N104W 11N110W 10N120W
12N130W 13N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM 
SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 86W AND 88W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120-180 NM S 
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 92W-99W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF 8N132W.


...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION OVER ARIZONA SW THROUGH 26N113W TO 22N120W. MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THE SHEAR AXIS. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 
THE SHEAR AXIS. A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
PACIFIC S OF THE SHEAR AXIS WITH AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED NEAR 
10N136W AND ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WITH RIDGE SW TO 
15N109W. THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN IS 
LOCATED JUST INLAND THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 20N104W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 
104W-107W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 16N98.5W 17N102W. THE REMNANTS OF NORMAN 
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER PORTIONS 
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE THE 
RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF 
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. 

MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SHEAR AXIS AND THE 
ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO IS CHANNELING AMPLE HIGH LEVEL 
MOISTURE NNE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO OR SE OF LINE FROM 
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS THROUGH 24N110W 16N116W. MODERATE EASTERLY 
FLOW AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS PREVAILS OVER THE TROPICAL 
PACIFIC E OF 110W. 

CONVECTION WITHIN THIS AREA IS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE ITCZ 
REGION. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED
BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG 140W AND JUST W OF THE AREA FROM 
18.5N-26N.

SURFACE...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED JUST NW OF THE REGION NEAR 32N140W 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE THROUGH 28N130W TO 24N123W. HIGH 
PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W. ELSEWHERE WEAK 
PRESSURE PATTERN WITH RELATIVELY LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA.

$$
AGUIRRE