000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152136
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN OCT 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.
     
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN NEAR 19.0N 104.8W AT 15/1500 UTC OR 
ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. NORMAN HAS 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT WITH ESTIMATED 
CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB. NORMAN IS MOVING NNE 8 KT. NORMAN HAS 
A RATHER LARGE ENVELOPE AND IS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WITH BANDS 
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS WITHIN 150-180 NM OF THE CENTER 
OF THE SW SEMICIRCLE. NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTLINE 
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR NORMAN 
TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL. NORMAN IS EXPECTED 
TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH 
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF 
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING 
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W N OF 4N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE IS TIED TO THE ITCZ AS DESCRIBED BELOW UNDER
ITCZ. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO 
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN WITHIN THE NEXT 
36-48 HRS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 8N90W 15N105W 12N118W 12N125W
12N133W 13N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM
SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 104W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120-180 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 
79W-82W...86W-90W AND 93W-99W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60-90 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 130W-135W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION OVER ARIZONA SW THROUGH 26N118W 24N125W 25N130W TO
27N140W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED WITHIN 
90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR AXIS. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
COVERS THE AREA N OF THE SHEAR AXIS. A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE PACIFIC S OF THE SHEAR AXIS WITH AN ANTICYCLONE 
LOCATED NEAR 10N136W AND ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WITH RIDGE
SW TO 15N109W. THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NORMAN IS LOCATED JUST ON THE MEXICAN COASTLINE ABOUT 30 NM 
WNW OF MANZANILLO. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM
EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 11N109W TO 13N104W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE
14N106W 16N103W TO 17.5N101W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS CONFINED FROM 17N-21N E OF 107W TO INLAND THE 
WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. THE REMNANTS OF NORMAN WILL 
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES 
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF 
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE THE RISK
OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF 
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. 

MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SHEAR AXIS AND THE 
ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO IS CHANNELING AMPLE HIGH LEVEL 
MOISTURE NNE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO OR SE OF LINE FROM 
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS THROUGH 24N110W 16N116W. MODERATE EASTERLY 
FLOW AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS PREVAILS OVER THE TROPICAL 
PACIFIC E OF 110W. 

CONVECTION WITHIN THIS AREA IS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE ITCZ 
REGION. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED
BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG 140W AND JUST W OF THE AREA FROM 
18.5N-26N.

SURFACE...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED JUST NW OF THE REGION NEAR 31N140W 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE THROUGH 28N132W 24N126W TO 18N117W.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 120W. ELSEWHERE
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WITH RELATIVELY LOW PRESSURE COVERS
THE AREA.

$$
AGUIRRE