000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150908
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN OCT 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
     
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
NEWLY REFORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN NEAR 18.1N 105.1W AT 
15/0900 UTC.  MOVE NNE 7 KT CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB WITH MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.  DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO 
STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HOURS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.  
DEPRESSION IS WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND IS 
LOCATED 75 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. DEEP CONVECTION HAS 
INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 180 NM 
OF THE CENTER. HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING WILL 
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W N OF 7N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  THIS WAVE IS 
EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO THE LARGER DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 3N77W 10N100W 10N120W 12N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN AREA FROM 3.5N 
TO 8.5N FROM 83W TO 92W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTH OF 20N. THE AREA IS DRY AND 
CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IMPLYING UPPER LEVEL 
SUBSIDENCE.  AT THE LOWER LEVEL BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS 
NORTH OF 28N E OF 128W TO 118W.  ELSEWHERE WITHIN THIS REGION IN THE 
LOWER LEVEL NORTH OF 28N SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS 
OBSERVED.  FROM 20N TO 28N SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS IS OBSERVED.

OUTSIDE THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS A BROAD 
RIDGE.  THE CONVECTION WITHIN THIS AREA IS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE 
ITCZ REGION.  ONE EXCEPTION IS AN AREA OF NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 
135W EXTENDING NORTH TO 17N...THIS IS DUE TO A DEEP LAYER SMALL LOW 
JUST WEST OF THE AREA.  

SURFACE...
WEAK RIDGE NORTH OF 17N WEST OF 117W.  REMAINDER OF THE AREA OUTSIDE 
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD TROUGH.

$$
LL