000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150328
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN OCT 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
     
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
LOW 17N105W 1003 MB NEARLY STATIONARY IN A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED 
WEATHER AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN IS LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTHWEST OF 
MANZANILLO MEXICO. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER 
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW. THIS SYSTEM 
COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO 
WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

LOW 16N112W 1008 MB MOVING ESE 8 KT ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION OLIVIA IS LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW IS BECOMING DIFFICULT TO 
DISTINGUISH IN THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME 
ABSORBED BY THE LARGER DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W N OF 5N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO THE 
LARGER DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 9N83W 10N90W 12N98W 11N110W 13N134W 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 82W AND 91W.

...DISCUSSION...
A E MOVING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N119W TO A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR
26N134W. A SUBTROPICAL JET WITHIN 200 NM OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 
TROUGH HAS CORE WINDS OF 75-80 KT. DRY AIR IS EVIDENT NW OF THE 
TROUGH. A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SE AND E OF THE TROUGH.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO 
NEAR 20N96W A RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH 18N105W TO 15N130W. A BROAD 
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AT 32N141W 
TO 20N120W. A LOW PREVIOUSLY NEAR 12N137W IS NO LONGER IDENTIFIABLE.

$$
MUNDELL