000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142111
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT OCT 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
     
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
LOW 17N108W 1005 MB NEARLY STATIONARY IN A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED 
WEATHER AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF 
NORMAN IS LOCATED 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.  THE 
SYSTEM IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

LOW 16N114W 1008 MB MOVING ESE 8 KT ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION OLIVIA IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME 
ABSORBED BY THE LARGER DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W N OF 5N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH SCATTERED 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 96W AND 103W.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 8N83W 9N90W 14N105W 14N110W 10N122W 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 81W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...
A E MOVING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 33N120W TO A WEAK CYCLONIC 
VORTEX NEAR 24N137W. A SUBTROPICAL JET WITHIN 200 NM OF THE LEADING 
EDGE OF THE TROUGH HAS CORE WINDS 80-90 KT. DRY AIR IS NOTED NW OF 
THE TROUGH. A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SE AND E OF THE 
TROUGH.

A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO HAS A RIDGE 
THROUGH 20N100W TO 10N135W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 
1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AT 32N140W TO 20N120W. A 1011 MB LOW 
NEAR 12N137W IS NEARLY STATIONARY.

$$
MUNDELL