000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141600
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.
     
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

.LOW 17N108W 1005 MB NEARLY STATIONARY IN A LARGE AREA OF 
DISTURBED WEATHER AND LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS 
OF NORMAN IS LOCATED 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.  
THE NEARLY-STATIONARY SYSTEM IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER 
ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT 
DAY OR SO. 
T
.LOW 16N116W 1008 MB MOVING ESE 8 KT ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA IS LOCATED ABOUT 620 MILES 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THIS 
LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THE LARGER DISTURBANCE 
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W N OF 5N MOVING W 10-15 KT. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS...8N817W 8N87W 16N107W 10N120W 12N135W 12N140W. 
COVECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE E OF 80W ALONG COLOMBIAN COAST. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 83W AND 93W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 101W AND 107W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 135W.



...DISCUSSION...

A SE MOVING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N125W TO A WEAK CYCLONIC 
VORTEX NEAR 24N137W. A STRONG JET WITHIN 200 NM OF THE LEADING 
EDGE OF THE TROUGH HAS REPORTED WINDS OF 80-90 KT. DRY AIR IS 
NOTED NW OF THE TROUGH. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE 
IS ELSEWHERE  SE AND E OF THE TROUGH.

A LARGE ANTICYCLONE  CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO HAS A 
RIDGE THROUGH 20N100W TO 10N135W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED 
STRONG  CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 
96W AND 103W.

A LARGE SURFACE  RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021MB HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER AT 32N140W TO 20N120W.

A LOW 12N137W 1011 MB IS MOVING ENE 9 KT.

$$
TORRES SUAREZ