000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140906
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT OCT 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
     
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N108W OR ABOUT 335 NM SW OF 
MANZANILLO MEXICO WITH NEARLY STATIONARY MOVEMENT. A BROAD 
CIRCULATION HAD BEEN CENTERED BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 105W 
AND THE REMNANT LOW OF T.S. NORMAN...BUT NOW A NEW LOW APPEARS 
TO HAVE REFORMED WITH A FAIRLY SOLID CONVECTIVE BAND TO ITS SW. 
THE LOW IS LOCATED BENEATH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO 
THE SW OF AN UPPER RIDGE...AND CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. AFTER THE 
LOW BECOMES CONSOLIDATE...IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NWD 
DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM SW 
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE IS ALSO FROM 17N-21N 
BETWEEN 101W-110W ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND 
PUERTO VALLARTA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W/93W N OF 5N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE 
IS ILL-DEFINED SINCE IT IS RUNNING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT DOMINATED 
BY LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. A BROKEN LINE OF WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS N OF 10N BETWEEN 92W-95W... 
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W IS BECOMING INCORPORATED INTO THE 
CIRCULATION OF THE LOW NEAR 15N108W AND IS THEREFORE BEING 
DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 6N83W 15N108W 10N120W 13N135W 
12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION E OF 80W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 83W-93W. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 96W-107W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP-LAYERED LOW WHICH HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE AREA W OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NE AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED 
NEAR LOS ANGELES CA. A LAGGING MID/UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG 
30N124W 22N140W WITH A 70-100 KT UPPER JET FROM 22N130W TO NW 
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK OVER THE NW 
PART OF THE AREA WITH A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N140W. 
FARTHER S...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIES ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 
NEAR ACAPULCO MEXICO TO 15N120W 8N140W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS 
ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 135W...BUT NONE OF IT IS REALLY 
ORGANIZED AT THIS POINT. A BROAD AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE UP TO 
800 NM SW OF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST AND IS HELPING TO ENHANCE 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR 15N108W. THE DIFFLUENCE 
IS BEING CAUSED BY SLY FLOW ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER 
HIGH OVER THE E COAST OF MEXICO...AND NELY FLOW EXTENDING 
TOWARDS THE EQUATOR. INTENSE CONVECTION HAS ALSO FORMED E OF THE 
LOW DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SLIGHT UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE. AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL ROTATION IS NOTED S OF THE 
PANAMA/COSTA RICAN COASTS NEAR 6N83W BUT THE ADJACENT CLUSTERS 
OF CONVECTION APPEAR RELATED TO THE ITCZ AND NOT SURFACE LOW 
DEVELOPMENT.

$$
BERG