000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140330 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT OCT 14 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W N OF 5N IS MOVING W 13 KT. CONVECTION REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N91W TO 10N94W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W FROM 5N-18N IS MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS AT THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF A SLOWLY ORGANIZING BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AREA THAT EXTENDS UP TO 780 NM TO ITS WEST. AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THIS CIRCULATION...A CENTER OF CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH OUT OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN AREA OF LOW PRES...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...EMERGE FROM THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HRS...AND MOVE IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY MON AND TUE. DURING THE PREVIOUS 24 HRS MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAD BEEN LOCATED W OF THE WAVE AXIS...HOWEVER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HAVE INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM 12N-15N EAST OF THE WAVE TO ABOUT 98W. SEE ITCZ AND DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N85W 14N95W 15N106W 16N115W 13N126W 13N130W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 8N-14N W OF 134W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 80W-90W. ...DISCUSSION... DEEP-LAYERED LOW PRES MOVING INLAND THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS ATTENDANT BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT TRAILS SSW THROUGH 32N119W TO 27N124W. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N122W THROUGH 28N132W TO 23N140W. THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG IN DRY AIR INTO THE AREA EVIDENT BY LESS COVERAGE OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. UPPER LEVEL W/SWLYS COVER THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 120W AND N OF 19N E OF 120W. PATCHES OF MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ARE SEEN MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL FORM NEAR 23N118W MON INTO TUE THEN SHEARS OUT LATER TUE THROUGH THU AS DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SW U.S LIFTS OFF TO THE E WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NLY UPPER FLOW LINGERING BEHIND IT. A SMALL LOW PRES SYSTEM ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 12N138W 1010 MB IS LOCATED BENEATH THE DIFFLUENT REGIME OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SE MEXICO NEAR 18N94W WSW THROUGH 16N118W 14N120W TO ANOTHER WEAKER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 14N127W AND TO W OF OF THE AREA NEAR 11N140W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...BUT DOES NOT SHOW CLEAR OF ORGANIZATION AND FORMATION OF BANDING AT THE PRESENT TIME. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES ENE. FARTHER E...REMNANT LOW OF FORMER T.D. OLIVIA IS CENTERED NEAR 16N116W WITH PRES 1008 MB AND MOVING ESE 5-10 KT AS IT BECOMES DIFFUSE. IT IS MARKED AS A SWIRL OF LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 114W-119W. FORMER T.D. NORMAN IS ALSO NOTED IN THE REGION NEAR 15N110W WITH PRES OF 1005 MB. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE BECOMING ENTRAINED INTO THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION MENTIONED ABOVE WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W. THE CURRENT TREND APPEARS TO INDICATE THAT A MEAN CENTER OF THIS COMPLETE CYCLONIC GYRE IS EVOLVING AT THE LOCATION WHERE THE REMNANTS OF NORMAN ARE LOCATED. IN ADDITION TO ITCZ CONVECTION ALREADY MENTIONED...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF WEAK DEVELOPING BANDING ARE OBSERVED FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 101W-113W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 17N-21N E OF 110W TO ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. SMALL CYCLONIC SWIRL IS OBSERVED ON ENHANCED IR IMAGERY TO BE NEAR 16N108W MOVING SLOWLY NW. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 99W-102W. THE CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OCCURRING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SE MEXICO. THIS HIGH ALSO CONTINUES TO BRING MODERATE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES OVER THE FAR E PACIFIC...WHICH IS PROVIDING MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR AS SEEN IN SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF 15N E OF 102W. $$ AGUIRRE