000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132134 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI OCT 13 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W N OF 5N IS MOVING W 13 KT. CONVECTION REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N90W TO 11N93W. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-6N. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W FROM 5N-18N IS MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS AT THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF A SLOWLY ORGANIZING BROAD CIRCULATION AREA THAT EXTENDS UP TO 780 NM TO ITS WEST. AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THIS CIRCULATION...A CENTER OF CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH OUT OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN AREA OF LOW PRES...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ...EMERGE FROM THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HRS... AND MOVE IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY MON AND TUE. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED W OF THE WAVE AXIS...SEE ITCZ AND DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N85W 14N94W 15N106W 16N118W 14N124W 13N130W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 8N-14N W OF 134W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 80W-86W...AND FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 106W-113W. ...DISCUSSION... DEEP-LAYERED LOW PRES MOVING INLAND THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST HAS A SURFACE TRAILING SSW THROUGH 32N119W 26N120W TO 23N126W TO 23N141W. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N122W THROUGH 28N132W TO 23N140W. THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG IN DRY AIR INTO THE AREA...SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AS AN EVAPORATION OF THE USUAL LOW-LEVEL STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS. UPPER LEVEL W/SWLYS COVER THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 120W AND N OF 19N E OF 120W. PATCHES OF MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ARE SEEN MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A SMALL LOW PRES SYSTEM ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 12N1398 IS LOCATED BENEATH THE DIFFLUENT REGIME OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SE MEXICO NEAR 18N94W WSW THROUGH 16N118W 14N120W TO ANOTHER WEAKER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 14N127W AND TO W OF OF THE AREA NEAR 11N140W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...BUT DOES NOT SHOW CLEAR OF ORGANIZATION AND FORMATION OF BANDING AT THE PRESENT TIME. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES ENE. FARTHER E...REMNANT LOW OF FORMER T.D. OLIVIA IS CENTERED NEAR 17N118W WITH PRES 1008 MB AND MOVING ESE 5-10 KT. IT IS MARKED AS A SWIRL OF LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 116W-120W. FORMER T.D. NORMAN IS ALSO NOTED IN THE REGION NEAR 15N111W WITH PRES OF 1007 MB. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE BECOMING ENTRAINED INTO THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION MENTIONED ABOVE WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W...AND WILL LIKELY LOSE THEIR IDENTITIES WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. THE OVERALL MEAN CENTER OF THIS COMPLETE CYCLONIC GYRE APPEARS TO BE SITUATED AT THE LOCATION WHERE THE REMNANTS OF NORMAN ARE FOUND. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF WEAK DEVELOPING BANDING ARE OBSERVED FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 103W-113W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 17N-21N E OF 109W TO ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE. SMALL CYCLONIC SWIRL IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BE NEAR 15N108W MOVING SLOWLY NW. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 99W-102W. THE CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OCCURRING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SE MEXICO. THIS HIGH ALSO CONTINUES TO RESULT IN MODERATE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES OVER THE FAR E PACIFIC...CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS PRIMARILY WESTERLY. $$ AGUIRRE