000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131520
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI OCT 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
     
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W N OF 8N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE HAS VERY 
LITTLE CONVECTION EXCEPT ALONG THE ITCZ JUST S OF PANAMA AND COSTA 
RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 79W-85W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W S OF 18N MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE IS ALONG 
THE ERN FRINGE OF A MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION DEVELOPING UP TO 600 NM 
TO ITS W. AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THIS CIRCULATION...A LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM LIFTS SLOWLY N OUT 
OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. FORECAST MODELS SHOW THIS LOW 
MOVING NW TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA BY MON AND TUE. MOST OF THE DEEP 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED W OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 8N84W 10N90W 13N95W 13N106W 15N111W 15N120W 12N128W 
12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 79W-85W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 105W-114W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS W OF 134W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S OF A LOW NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 
26N122W 24N130W. IT IS ADVECTING DRY AIR INTO THE AREA EVIDENCED BY 
LESS COVERAGE OF STRATOCUMULUS. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS HELPING SUPPRESS 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY N OF 20N. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SRN 
MEXICO TO AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 11N128W TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE
S OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
OVER TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF CONVECTION.

A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 12N139W IS LOCATED 
BENEATH THE DIFFLUENT REGIME OF THE UPPER RIDGE. CONVECTION REMAINS 
DISORGANIZED BUT SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE SINCE THERE ARE 
NO UNFAVORABLE FACTORS AT THIS TIME.

FARTHER E...THE REMNANT LOWS OF OLIVIA AND NORMAN ARE BECOMING THE 
RENEWED FOCUS OF A DEVELOPING MONSOON TROUGH E OF 125W. QUIKSCAT 
INDICATES WESTERLY WINDS ARE INTENSIFYING BETWEEN 100W-120W AND THE 
MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A 
KICKER FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THIS MONSOON TROUGH 
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 105-115W. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND 
BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REGIME
PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...AND A REGENERATION OF NORMAN WITHIN THE LARGER
BROAD CIRCULATION IS POSSIBLE.

$$
MUNDELL