000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130320
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI OCT 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
     
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W N OF 4N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE 
IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING OVER
THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC W OF THE MEXICAN COAST. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 11N-14N WITHIN 300 NM 
W OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW CYCLONIC TURNING IN 
COMBINATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE 
INTO A MORE DEFINITIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS AS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.

TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 116W IS NOW LONGER IDENTIFIABLE 
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW HAS OVERCOME
THE AREA WHERE THE WAVE EARLIER WAS ESTIMATED.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W 15N97W 13N107W 13N120W 14N130W
11N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 105W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W-116W...
AND ALSO N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE
12N134W 12N136W.

...DISCUSSION...

MID/UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA OFF 
THE CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 33N122W IS MOVING E ABOUT 12 KT. THE
CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO LIFT NE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND TO THE SW U.S.THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION SWD THROUGH 27N122W TO 22N125W. A
SUBTROPICAL JET BRANCH WITH MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 
60-80 KT ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 19N140W AND CONTINUES 
ALONG 19N125W THEN ENE THROUGH 19N120W AND NE TO ACROSS 
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND WLY FLOW
COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL BAJA 
CALIFORNIA SW TO 20N125W. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD N OF 23N BETWEEN
129W-139W. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTERED NEAR 30N137W AND DROPPING SWD ABOUT 20-25 KT. A 
SHARPENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE 
CIRCULATION TO 27N140W. THE UPPER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES N BEHIND 
THIS TROUGH. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS WITH ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE PRESENT N OF 21N. A NW SURGE OF 20 KT WINDS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER LOW WAS INDICATED BY SCATTEROMETER 
TO BE LOCATED N OF 29N BETWEEN 124.5W-132W.

THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17N119W 1007 MB MOVING E ABOUT 10 KT. ONLY ONE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF LOW. LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES
ROTATING CYCLONICALLY...BUT EXPANDING WITH TIME ARE EVIDENT FROM 
14N-19N BETWEEN 117W-125W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE LOW CLOUDS. A NEARLY STATIONARY SMALL 
WELL-DEFINED 1009 MB LOW IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 
12N139W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S AND 90 
NM N OF THE LOW. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS LOW WILL 
MOVE ENE AND POSSIBLE GAIN SOME STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS.
A NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 
MANZANILLO SW TO 11N140W WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 12N123W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO AID 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR 12N139W. A WEAK 1007 MB
LOW NEAR 16N113W 1007 MB...OLD REMNANTS FROM FORMER TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NORMAN...IS EXHIBITING STRONG CONVECTION IN CLUSTERS
FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 112W-115W. SINCE THE LOW IS UNDER THE 
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG 18N E OF
116W...CONVECTION WITH IT IS BEING SUSTAINED OVER A RATHER
LONG PERIOD OF TIME EVEN THOUGH THE LOW ITSELF IS NOT EXPECTED
TO REGAIN TROPICAL ORGANIZATION.

GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE WSW FLOW OVER THE 
SOUTHERN EPAC E OF 120W WILL INTENSIFY SOME OVER THE NEXT 
3-4 DAYS AND PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN ANY ORGANZATION THAT 
TAKES PLACE REGARDING NEW LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS NEAR
THE CENTRAL MEXICAN NEAR 105W AND THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
100W. PRESENTLY...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS N OF
18N TO OVER MEXICO AND BETWEEN 104W-106W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO SEEN N OF 18N BETWEEN 103W-104W. POSSIBLE
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED NEAR 18N104W MOVING NNW 15-20 KT.

$$
AGUIRRE