000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122214 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU OCT 12 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA CENTERED NEAR 17.5N 120.4W AT 12/2100 UTC MOVING E AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. OLIVIA ALMOST A LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SW SHEAR WHICH WILL SOON ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BECOME JUST A LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL ONCE REMAINING SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION ABOUT 90 NM NE OF THE CENTER DISSIPATES. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W N OF 6N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING WITHIN A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING W OF THE MEXICAN COAST. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 96W-100W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 15N96W 16N100W. THIS WAVE MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 116W FROM 5N TO 16N IS MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE MERGED WITH THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS ONCE TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN CENTERED NEAR 16N115W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 17N113W 16.5N115W IS DUE MAINLY TO THE LOW NEAR 16N115W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-13N IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W 14N96W 13N104W 17N116W 16N123W 13N130W 10N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 138W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 130W-135W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 80W-93W...AND FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 103W-113.5W. ...DISCUSSION... MID/UPPER LOW PRES CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 33N123W DRIFTING ESE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NE INTO THE SW U.S.THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SWD TO 20N WITH A 70-90 KT SUBTROPICAL JET RUNNING FROM 16N133W ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N E OF 131W TO NW OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA SW TO 20N125W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT N OF 21N. A NW SURGE OF 20 KT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER LOW WAS INDICATED BY SCATTEROMETER TO BE LOCATED N OF 29N BETWEEN 124.5W-129W. THE ITCZ IS DISPLACED ABOUT 450 NM N OF ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION BETWEEN 100W-120W DUE TO THE REMNANT CIRCULATIONS OF OLIVIA AND NORMAN. A SMALL WELL-DEFINED 1010 MB LOW IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 11N139W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION EXITS WITHIN 100 NM N AND S OF THE LOW. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR MANZANILLO SW TO 11N140W WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 12N124.5W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO AID CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 130W. WELL PRONOUNCED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BETWEEN 100W-120W IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR 16N115W AND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 116W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE WSW FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN EPAC E OF 120W WILL INTENSIFY THIS WEEKEND WITH 15-25 KT W WINDS DEVELOPING JUST S OF A MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 13-15N. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW NEAR 98W CONSOLIDATING AROUND A LOW NEAR 105W...THEN MOVING NW PARALLEL TO THE MEXICAN COAST. THIS MAY LEAD TO THE NEXT TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE E PAC BASIN. $$ AGUIRRE