000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121539
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU OCT 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA CENTERED NEAR 17.7N 121.1W AT 12/1500 UTC 
MOVING E AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR 
MORE DETAILS. OLIVIA IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH SHEAR WHICH WILL 
WEAKEN THE DEPRESSION. OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE 
POSSIBLE NE OF THE CENTER.
     
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W N OF 5N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS 
EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING WITHIN A 
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING W OF THE MEXICAN COAST. CONVECTION IS 
INTENSE BUT LOOSELY ORGANIZED OVER A LARGE AREA MAINLY N OF 11N 
BETWEEN 95W AND 99W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 113W N OF 5N MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING 
INTO AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND APPEARS TO BE MERGING 
WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS LOCATED FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN
110W AND 115W.
   
...ITCZ...
AXIS 11N86W 13N96W 11N113W 18N119W 11N140W. ISOLATED CONVECTION N OF 
5N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 8N 
BETWEEN 92W AND 98W...AND FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF THE 
AXIS W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
LOW PRES CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 
33N124W DRIFTING ESE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NE INTO THE SW U.S.THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SWD TO 20N WITH A 70-90 KT 
SUBTROPICAL JET RUNNING FROM 16N133W ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS N OF 20N WITH BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS W OF 120W.

THE ITCZ IS DISPLACED ABOUT 450 NM N OF ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION 
BETWEEN 100W-120W DUE TO THE REMNANT CIRCULATIONS OF OLIVIA AND 
NORMAN. W OF 120W WITH QUIKSCAT INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED 1012 MB LOW 
CENTERED NEAR 10N139W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE 
MEXICAN COAST NEAR MANZANILLO SW TO 11N140W AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 130W. STRONG ANTICYCLONIC 
CURVATURE NEAR THE RIDGE BETWEEN 110W-120W IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 113W.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE WSW FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN EPAC E 
OF 120W WILL INTENSIFY THIS WEEKEND WITH 15-25 KT W WINDS DEVELOPING 
JUST S OF A MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 13-15N. MODELS SHOW CONVECTIVE 
CLUSTERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW NEAR 96W CONSOLIDATING
AROUND A LOW NEAR 105W...THEN MOVES NW PARALLEL TO THE MEXICAN COAST.

$$
MUNDELL