000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120848 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU OCT 12 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA CENTERED NEAR 17.6N 121.9W OR 740 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 12/0900 UTC MOVING ENE AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. OLIVIA IS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF SWLY SHEAR DUE TO A DEEP-LAYERED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...AND IT CONTINUES TO GENERATE A SMALL CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N QUADRANT. SOME STABLE AIR IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE CIRCULATION...EVIDENCED BY A STRATUS DECK EXTENDING UP TO 360 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE...BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A WARM CORE FOR OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W N OF 4N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING... LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH A MONSOON TROUGH CIRCULATION JUST OFF THE MEXICAN COAST. CONVECTION IS INTENSE BUT LOOSELY ORGANIZED IN DISCONNECTED CLUSTERS EXTENDING OVER A LARGE AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG N OF 5N BETWEEN 90W-104W... WITH SEVERAL OF THESE CLUSTERS ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND MANZANILLO. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS MAKING THIS WAVE HARD TO LOCATE...BUT IT APPEARS COLLOCATED WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION S OF THE REMNANTS OF NORMAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 111W-115W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N77W 7N81W 13N100W 17N115W 12N123W 9N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 5N BETWEEN 85W-104W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 112W-116W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 130W. ...DISCUSSION... DEEP-LAYERED LOW PRES IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 33N125W IS MOVING S BUT WILL TURN ESE AT 5 KT OVER THE NEXT DAY...THEN LIFT SLOWLY NE INTO THE SW U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MID/UPPER LEVEL PART OF THE CIRCULATION EXTENDS SWD TO 20N WITH A 70-90 KT UPPER JET RUNNING FROM 23N127W TO EXTREME NW MEXICO. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS IN CONTROL WITH BROKEN STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS N OF 22N W OF 120W. FARTHER S...THE ITCZ IS PERTURBED ABOUT 400-500 NM N OF ITS NORMAL POSITION BETWEEN 100W-120W DUE TO THE CIRCULATIONS OF T.D. OLIVIA AND THE REMNANTS OF NORMAN. THE ITCZ IS AT ITS NORMAL LATITUDE W OF 120W WITH QUIKSCAT INDICATING A WELL-DEFINED 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N139W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR MANZANILLO SW TO 11N140W AND ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 130W. THERE IS ALSO DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE RIDGE BETWEEN 110W-120W WHERE THERE IS STRONGER ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE...AND THIS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W. THE REMNANT LOW OF NORMAN IS LOCATED JUST N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 17N115W AND IS PRODUCING ITS OWN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 112W-116W. STRONG ELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW SPANS ACROSS THE FAR E PACIFIC DUE TO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT AS WELL...SHOWN IN THE WIDESPREAD CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THESE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS COULD CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W IN THE COMING DAYS...THEN MOVE NW PARALLEL TO THE MEXICAN COAST AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES. $$ BERG