000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120343 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU OCT 12 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA CENTERED NEAR 17.3N 122.7W OR 960 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 12/0300 UTC MOVING E AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE PERSISTENCE OF UPPER LEVEL SWLY SHEAR ALONG WITH THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR INTO THE CIRCULATION IS PREVENTING OLIVIA FROM REGAINING SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE BEING OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM NE OF THE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS DEFINED AS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER NOTED AS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS...AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W N OF 4N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ ARE WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-12N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90-180 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 9N-11N. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W FROM 5N TO 15N IS MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-18N IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE WAVE WHICH IS ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W 10N100W 16N120W 13N128W 10N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 20 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 100W-102W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 8N-13N WEST OF 133W...AND ALSO WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W-94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 13N-14N BETWEEN 112W-114W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 96W-100W. ...DISCUSSION... LOW PRES NEAR 17N115W IS THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA. IN ADDITION TO DEEP CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW...SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FORMED WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF LOW. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES NE TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA. A CUT-OFF MID/UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 34N125W IS DRIFTING ESE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SW OF THE UPPER LOW INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N167W 27N133W TO 24N140W. CONFLUENT FLOW INTO THE TROUGH FROM WEST IS RESULTING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR NORTH OF 24N WEST OF THE TROUGH. A JET STREAM BRANCH ROUNDS THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH FROM 23N125W NORTHEAST THROUGH 27N120W TO ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATES MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 80-110 KT NEAR THE JET CORE NEAR AND ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRES NEAR 10N140W IS GREATLY ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 133W AS STATED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENE OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. ELSEWHERE N OF 20N...SCATTERED TO BROKEN PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 20N W OF 115W. THE REMAINDER OF REGION IS PRIMARILY BEING DOMINATED BY A WELL ANCHORED MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AS MENTIONED EARLIER UNDER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W. THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ANTICYCLONE COVER THE AREA S OF ABOUT 20N WITH ANOTHER BUT SMALLER MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 11N125W. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 19N105W SW THROUGH 15N119W TO THE CIRCULATION NEAR 11N125W AND SW OF THE REGION NEAR 11N140W. S OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO AND RIDGE AXIS...THE MID/UPPER FLOW IS NE-E ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE WESTWARD N OF ABOUT 3N. $$ AGUIRRE