000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112304 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED OCT 11 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA CENTERED NEAR 17.0N 123.6W OR 980 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 11/2100 UTC MOVING ENE AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE PERSISTENCE OF UPPER LEVEL SWLY SHEAR ALONG WITH THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR INTO THE CIRCULATION IS PREVENTING OLIVIA FROM REGAINING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. THE CLEARLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOTED AS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 120W-128W. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REORGANIZE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 4N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXITS MAINLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-9N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60-90 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W FROM 5N TO 16N IS MOVING W 10 KT. UPPER SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-14N IS PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ ...AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE WAVE WHICH IS ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N87W 10N92W 9N101W 10N110W 15N119W 11N130W 10N140W. SCATTERED STRONG IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 133W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 103W-115W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 97W-103W...AND ALSO FROM 4N-8N E OF 87W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 14N-28N BETWEEN 100W-104W...AND WITHIN 30-45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 14N102W TO 14N106W...AND LINE FROM 15.5N113W TO 18N114W. ...DISCUSSION... LOW PRES NEAR 18N115W IS THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA. DEEP CONVECTION OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE LOW HAS DISSIPATED. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90-100 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1300 UTC THIS MORNING INDICATED CLOSED CIRCULATION ACROSS THIS FEATURE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES NE TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA. A LARGE AND NEARLY CUT-OFF MID/UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 35N125W IS MOVING WSW ABOUT 17 KT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SW OF THE UPPER LOW INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N127W 27N133W TO 24N140W. CONFLUENT FLOW INTO THE TROUGH FROM WEST IS RESULTING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR NORTH OF 24N WEST OF THE TROUGH. A JET STREAM BRANCH ROUNDS THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH FROM 23N125W NORTHEAST THROUGH 27N120W TO ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATES MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 80-110 KT NEAR THE JET CORE NEAR AND ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE ...LOW PRES NEAR 10N140W IS GREATLY ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 133W AS STATED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENE OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. ELSEWHERE N OF 20N...SCATTERED TO BROKEN PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 20N W OF 115W. THE REMAINDER OF REGION IS PRIMARILY BEING DOMINATED BY A WELL ANCHORED MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AS MENTIONED EARLIER UNDER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W. THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ANTICYCLONE COVER THE AREA S OF ABOUT 20N WITH ANOTHER BUT SMALLER MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 11N125W.HE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 19N105W SW THROUGH 15N119W TO THE CIRCULATION NEAR 11N125W AND SW OF THE REGION NEAR 11N140W. S OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO AND RIDGE AXIS...THE MID/UPPER FLOW IS NE-E ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE WESTWARD N OF ABOUT 3N. $$ AGUIRRE