000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111519 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED OCT 11 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA CENTERED NEAR 17.0N 124.5W OR 900 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 11/1500 UTC MOVING ENE 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. OLIVIA HAS BEEN UNDER PERSISTENT S TO SWLY SHEAR FOR 24 HOURS AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAD BECOME SOMEWHAT EXPOSED SW OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER DEEP CONVECTION HAS REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER AND IS NOW PARTIALLY ORGANIZED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. NEARBY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION AND THE CONVECTIVE BURST NEAR THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE SHORT LIVED. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 17.6N124.3W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W N OF 5N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N TO 10N. THE CONVECTION SHOWS NO CYCLONIC ORGANIZATION. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W FROM 4N TO 15N MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 12N106W. SOME SLIGHT CYCLONIC ORGANIZATION IS NOTED ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY WITHIN THE ITCZ. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 12N105W 12N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE POINT 5.7N78.8W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE POINT 15N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 12N106W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 11.8N111.2W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 40 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS WEST OF 132W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 135W AND EXTENDS TO 13N. ...DISCUSSION... REMNANT LOW OF NORMAN...CENTERED NEAR 17N117W 1008 MB MOVING SLOWLY EAST. A TROUGH-LIKE FEATURE IS LOCATED ALONG 117W AND CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 16.9N114.8W. THE CONVECTION MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANT LOW WILL DEGENERATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES NE TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA. LOW 10N139W 1010 MB MOVE SLOWLY EAST. THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE ITCZ SHOWS SOME ORGANIZATION DUE TO THE LOW CENTER. UPPER LEVELS... MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTH OF A LINE THROUGH 20N140W TO 20N125W TO THE NORTH PART OF THE SEA OF CORTEZ. THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH AREAS OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WITHIN AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ. SURFACE... WEAK RIDGE NORTH OF LINE 15N140W 25N110W. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE LOWS MENTIONED ABOVE IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD TROUGH. $$ LL 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111519 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED OCT 11 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA CENTERED NEAR 17.0N 124.5W OR 900 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 11/1500 UTC MOVING ENE 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. OLIVIA HAS BEEN UNDER PERSISTENT S TO SWLY SHEAR FOR 24 HOURS AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAD BECOME SOMEWHAT EXPOSED SW OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER DEEP CONVECTION HAS REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER AND IS NOW PARTIALLY ORGANIZED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. NEARBY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION AND THE CONVECTIVE BURST NEAR THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE SHORT LIVED. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 17.6N124.3W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W N OF 5N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N TO 10N. THE CONVECTION SHOWS NO CYCLONIC ORGANIZATION. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W FROM 4N TO 15N MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 12N106W. SOME SLIGHT CYCLONIC ORGANIZATION IS NOTED ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY WITHIN THE ITCZ. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 12N105W 12N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE POINT 5.7N78.8W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE POINT 15N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 12N106W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 11.8N111.2W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 40 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS WEST OF 132W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 135W AND EXTENDS TO 13N. ...DISCUSSION... REMNANT LOW OF NORMAN...CENTERED NEAR 17N117W 1008 MB MOVING SLOWLY EAST. A TROUGH-LIKE FEATURE IS LOCATED ALONG 117W AND CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 16.9N114.8W. THE CONVECTION MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANT LOW WILL DEGENERATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES NE TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA. LOW 10N139W 1010 MB MOVE SLOWLY EAST. THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE ITCZ SHOWS SOME ORGANIZATION DUE TO THE LOW CENTER. UPPER LEVELS... MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTH OF A LINE THROUGH 20N140W TO 20N125W TO THE NORTH PART OF THE SEA OF CORTEZ. THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH AREAS OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WITHIN AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ. SURFACE... WEAK RIDGE NORTH OF LINE 15N140W 25N110W. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE LOWS MENTIONED ABOVE IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD TROUGH. $$ LL