000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110853 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED OCT 11 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA CENTERED NEAR 16.9N 124.7W OR 905 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 11/0900 UTC MOVING NE 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. OLIVIA HAS BEEN UNDER PERSISTENT S/SWLY SHEAR FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND NOW THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING SOMEWHAT EXPOSED SW OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS ALSO BEEN WANING...WITH CLOUD TOPS ONLY AS COLD AS -66C (THE REMNANTS OF NORMAN ACTUALLY HAVE COLDER CLOUD TOPS AT -87C). SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 121W-126W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W/90W N OF 4N MOVING W 10-15 KT. MOISTURE IS CURLING NWD ON THE E SIDE OF THE WAVE AND IS HELPING TO ENHANCE LAND BREEZE CONVECTION OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST BETWEEN COSTA RICA AND EL SALVADOR. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FAINT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND CONVECTION PRIMARILY ALIGNED ALONG THE ITCZ. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 5N85W 12N100W 15N110W 14N120W 9N133W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG FROM 3N-8N E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 87W-94W... AND BETWEEN 100W-115W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 125W. ...DISCUSSION... REMNANT LOW OF NORMAN... AFTER BEING VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HRS OR SO...A NEW BURST DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF NORMAN AROUND 0300 UTC. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO INDICATED WINDS STILL NEAR 30 KT (AND COULD BRIEFLY BE HIGHER IN THE NEW CONVECTIVE BURST). IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS BURST IS ONLY TEMPORARY AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANT LOW WILL DEGENERATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES NE TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 113W-117W. A LARGE AND NEARLY CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LOW REMAINS N OF THE AREA...CENTERED NEAR SAN FRANCISCO CA AND MOVING SSW 10-15 KT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SW OF THE UPPER LOW INTO THE AREA ALONG 30N130W 26N140W WITH A STRONG 70-100 KT JET CORE RUNNING FROM 24N130W NEWD INTO NW MEXICO AND THE SW UNITED STATES. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALSO DANGLES INTO THE AREA FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO 30N124W 27N130W...WITH NLY FLOW USHERING IN A LOW-LEVEL STRATUS LAYER N OF 24N BETWEEN 120W-137W. FARTHER S...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 19N107W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 12N120W 10N140W. BROAD SWLY FLOW LIES BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE AND THE BROAD TROUGH N OF THE AREA...WHICH IS ADVERSELY AFFECTING BOTH T.S. OLIVIA AND THE REMNANTS OF NORMAN. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW LIES S OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE CARIBBEAN FLOWING WWD ACROSS THE FAR E PACIFIC THEN THINNING OUT JUST A BIT W OF 120W. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 10N139W...SOMEWHAT DETACHED FROM THE ITCZ...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL NE DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LAND BREEZE CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP AGAIN TONIGHT OFF THE MEXICAN COAST WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION N OF 14N TO THE COAST BETWEEN 93W-100W. $$ BERG