000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110325
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED OCT 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA CENTERED NEAR 16.5N 125.4W AT 11/0300 UTC 
MOVING NE 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS. OLIVIA IS EXPERIENCING SOME SLY SHEAR AND THE LOW LEVEL 
CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A LARGE AREA 
OF DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 
NM NE OF CENTER.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN CENTERED NEAR 16.8N 117.1W AT 11/0300 UTC 
MOVING E 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS. NORMAN IS EXPERIENCING STRONG SW SHEAR AS IT MOVES UNDER 
THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS FULLY EXPOSED. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W N OF 3N MOVING W 10 KT HAS ISOLATED 
CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W N OF 4N MOVING W 10 KT HAS ISOLATED 
CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 8N82W 9N98W 10N105W 12N120W 12N126W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA COAST E OF 86W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS W OF 108W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM 17N107W TO 10N137W. AN UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM 31N136W TO 17N140W. SLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW SE OF 
THE TROUGH AND A SUBTROPICAL JET N OF THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING A LARGE 
AREA OF SHEAR ACROSS OLIVIA AND NORMAN. THESE SHEARING EFFECTS ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. AT THE SURFACE...A WIDE SWATH OF SOUTHERLY 
WINDS FEEDING INTO A TROUGH ROUGHLY ALONG 10N PREVAILS ACROSS THE 
BASIN S OF 9N. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT DEEPENING WILL OCCUR E 
OF 115W OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH SETTING 
UP ALONG 8N AFTER THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE 
TEXAS COAST INTO THE GULF FRIDAY WILL CREATE STRONG GAP WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS WEEKEND.

$$
MUNDELL