000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101528
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE OCT 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM NORMAN IS CENTERED NEAR 17.0N 117.9W OR 575 NM SW 
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 10/1500 UTC MOVING N 3 
KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. NORMAN HAS MOVED BENEATH A BROAD AREA OF UPPER 
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES THE RESULTING SHEAR HAS CAUSED THE DEEP 
CONVECTION TO BECOME DISPLACED NE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND TO 
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 18.4N116W.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM 
OLIVIA AND IS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 127.5W OR 1120 SW OF THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 10/1500 UTC MOVING N 5 KT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/ WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS AT 
THE SOUTH EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE 
DEPRESSION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOME SLY SHEAR.  NUMEROUS 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF 15.8N127.7W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 104W FROM 4N TO 15N MOVING W 15 KT. 
ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OUTSIDE THE ITCZ REGION. 
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 
9.5N104.9W WITHIN THE ITCZ REGION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 9N100W 12N120W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 
7.8N79.6W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF 
6.5N88.8W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 
10N112.2W AND 11.8N112.2W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 10N TO 13N 
FROM 117W TO 121W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTH OF A LINE THROUGH 16N140W 
TO 25N128W TO BEYOND 25N108W.  THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST 
AND AFFECT THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES WITH UPPER LEVEL 
SOUTHWESTERLIES.  THE ATMOSPHERE IS OBSERVED TO BE DRY AND CLOUD 
FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

ELSEWHERE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED WITH EXTENSIVE 
AREAS OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND AREAS OF CONVECTION WITHIN AND 
NORTH OF THE ITCZ.  THE CONVECTION IS IN THE ITCZ AND THE TWO 
TROPICAL SYSTEMS AND CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA SOUTH OF 17N. 

SURFACE...
WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF A LINE FROM THE SOUTH TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA TO 17N140W.  ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE TWO TROPICAL 
CYCLONES A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

$$