000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE OCT 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM NORMAN IS CENTERED NEAR 16.5N 117.8W OR 590 NM SW 
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 10/0900 UTC MOVING N 2 
KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. NORMAN HAS MOVED BENEATH A BROAD AREA OF UPPER 
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM EARLIER THIS 
EVENING INDICATED THAT THE RESULTING SHEAR HAS CAUSED THE DEEP 
CONVECTION TO BECOME DISPLACED NE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 
112W-118W.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 14.0N 127.7W OR 
1145 WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 10/0900 UTC 
MOVING N 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS 
TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/ 
WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AFTER LOOKING EXTREMELY RAGGED 
EARLIER THIS EVENING...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION 
BECAME MORE EVIDENT AND HAS PARTIALLY TUCKED BENEATH A NEW BURST 
OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE DEPRESSION LIES ALMOST DIRECTLY BENEATH 
A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOME 
SE/SLY SHEAR. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
13N-16N BETWEEN 126W-129W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A WEAK 
SIGNATURE IS NOTED IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ONLY ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 99W-103W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W 8N90W 10N100W 13N116W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 86W-92W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 108W-119W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SPRAWLING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NW NEVADA WITH 
ITS CIRCULATION EXTENDING SWD OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. 
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIES OFF THE SW SIDE OF THIS MASSIVE 
CIRCULATION ALONG 30N134W 24N140W AND WILL SOON BECOME ABSORBED 
AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW DROPS S. A 70-100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET 
EXTENDS ON THE S SIDE OF THE TROUGH ROUGHLY FROM 25N130W TO 
26N112W OVER CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA THEN NE INTO SW TEXAS. 
BROAD SWLY FLOW EXTENDS ANOTHER 500 NM OR SO SOUTH OF THE JET 
AXIS AND IS PRODUCING A BIT OF SHEAR OVER BOTH T.S. NORMAN AND 
T.D. SIXTEEN-E. A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIES S OF THE 
CYCLONES...EXTENDING FROM 18N104W NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO SW TO 
11N140W. UPPER LEVEL FLOW S OF THE RIDGE IS MAINLY NE/ELY WITH 
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NEAR THE ITCZ. E OF 110W...THE 
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE EXTENDS E ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS 
PRODUCING ELY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FAR E PACIFIC WATERS. AN 
INVERTED TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW ALONG 103W ROUGHLY 
COINCIDENT WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 102W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN TWO CLUSTERS OFF THE 
CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST TONIGHT...N OF 12N BETWEEN 87W-95W (OR 
BETWEEN NW NICARAGUA AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC).

$$
BERG