000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100343
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE OCT 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM NORMAN CENTERED NEAR 16.9N 117.8W AT 10/0300 UTC 
MOVING N 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR 
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...BUT CONDITIONS 
BECOME UNFAVORABLE AS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS IMPACT THE 
SYSTEM. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16-E CENTERED NEAR 13.3N 127.7W AT 10/0300 UTC 
MOVING N 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF 20 TO 30 KT WINDS 
AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT THE SURFACE. CONDITIONS ARE 
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
WAVE ALONG 101W N OF 4N MOVING W 15 KT WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 9N84W 9N104W 13N117W 13N125W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH OF A LINE FROM S BAJA CALIFORNIA 
TO 15N140W. ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES A WEAK 
TROUGH IS ROUGHLY ALONG 10N. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 18N104W TO AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 
11N137W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PRODUCING A NARROW REGION OF LOW SHEAR 
OVER THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTH OF 20N. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS 
PRODUCING DRY MID LEVEL AIR NORTH OF A LINE FROM 29N140W TO 22N130W 
TO 22N122W TO 32N108W AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS AT LOWER 
LEVELS. THE SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS EXTENDS FROM 20N128W ACROSS BAJA 
CALIFORNIA WITH WINDS UP TO 90 KT NEAR ITS CORE.
  
GAP WINDS...NLY FLOW 15 TO 20 KT CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. EXPECT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS 
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW 20 KT.

$$
MUNDELL