000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092157
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON OCT 9 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM NORMAN CENTERED NEAR 16.2N 117.9W AT 09/2100 UTC 
MOVING NNW 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE 1002 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE 
FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...BUT CONDITIONS 
BECOME UNFAVORABLE AS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS IMPACT THE 
SYSTEM. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16-E CENTERED NEAR 12.8N 127.9W AT 09/2100 UTC 
MOVING NW 1 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF 20 TO 
30 KT WINDS AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT THE SURFACE. CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
WAVE ALONG 99W N OF 4N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 9N84W 9N104W 13N117W 13N125W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 112W.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH OF A LINE FROM S BAJA CALIFORNIA 
TO 15N140W. ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES A WEAK 
TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 18N104W TO AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 
11N137W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PRODUCING A NARROW REGION OF LOW SHEAR 
OVER THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTH OF 20N. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS PRODUCING 
DRY MID LEVEL AIR NORTH OF A LINE FROM 29N140W TO 22N130W TO 22N122W 
TO 32N108W AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS AT LOWER LEVELS. THE 
SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS EXTENDS FROM 20N128W ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH
WINDS UP TO 90 KT NEAR ITS CORE.
  
GAP WINDS...NLY FLOW AROUND 20 KT CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. EXPECT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT 12-18 
HOURS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW 20 KT.

$$
MUNDELL