000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091536
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON OCT 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM NORMAN CENTERED NEAR 15.8N 117.6W AT 09/1500 UTC 
MOVING N 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER.  
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 
18 TO 30 HOURS...THEREAFTER CONDITIONS BECOME UNFAVORABLE AS 
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS IMPACT THE SYSTEM. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A LOW PRES NEAR 13N127W 1008 MB LOW IS MOVING W 5 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 13N 127.6W. 
THIS CONVECTION FLUCTUATES WITH BANDING FEATURES OCCASIONALLY 
NOTED. THE LOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF 20 TO 30 KT 
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL 
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 98W FROM 4N TO 14N MOVE W AT 12 
KT. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS BUT 
CONVECTION IS NOT VERY EXTENSIVE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 11N115W 9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 
90 NM OF 5.5N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 45 NM OF 
10.7N113.6W.

...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...
MIDDLE AND UPPER TROUGH IS NORTH OF 20N.  DRY AND CLOUD FREE  
AIR IS OBSERVED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL NORTH OF A LINE 
29N140W TO 22N130W TO 22N122W TO 32N108W.  IN THE LOWER LEVELS 
OVERCAST TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS OBSERVED.

ELSEWHERE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY BROAD 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  THE UPPER LEVELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT WITH 
EXTENSIVE AREAS OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WEST OF 
110W.  EAST OF 110W MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS NOT AS 
EXTENSIVE.  HOWEVER BOTH EAST OF 110W AND WEST OF 110 THERE ARE 
AREAS OF CONVECTION BUT ONLY THE TWO SPECIAL FEATURE LOWS SHOW 
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS.

SURFACE...
BROAD MODERATE RIDGE NORTH OF A LINE FROM THE SOUTH TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA TO 15N140W.  ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE TWO TROPICAL 
CYCLONES A BROAD WEAK TROUGH IS ANALYZED.
  
GAP WINDS...ONE SHIP REPORT CONFIRMS NLY FLOW TO 20 KT 
CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WILL CONTINUE 
WEAKENING TREND WITH WINDS BELOW 20 KT IN 12 HOURS.

$$
LL