000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090958
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON OCT 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E CENTERED NEAR 15.3N 117.6W AT 
09/0900 UTC MOVING NNW 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1006 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 
WITHIN 300 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED. 
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 
24 TO 36 HOURS...THEREAFTER CONDITIONS BECOME UNFAVORABLE. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A DEEP LAYERED TROPICAL LOW PRES HAS ITS SURFACE CENTER NEAR 
13N127W 1008 MB LOW IS DRIFTING W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF 12.5N 127.5W. THIS 
CONVECTION FLUCTUATES WITH BANDING FEATURES OCCASIONALLY NOTED. 
THE LOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF 20 TO 30 KT WINDS AT 
THE SURFACE. CONDITIONS AREA FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT 
THROUGH 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 97W N OF 4N CONTINUES TO MOVE W 
AT 12 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS 
BUT ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 OF THE EAVE AXIS N 
OF 7N.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N79W 10N90W 10N105W 14N116W 11N122W 
13N120W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 6N77W 9N89W AND 
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 10N105W 11N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR 
33N116W TRAILING A TROUGH SW THROUGH 25N130W TO A WEAKENING 
UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 26N142W. THE WESTERNMOST CYCLONE IS EXPECTED 
TO SHIFT E INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA BY SUNRISE TUE. TO THE N OF
THE TROUGH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 34N134W AND IS 
SHIFTING SSE WITH TIME WHILE WEAKENING. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER 
RIDGE EXTENDS N ALONG 140W. TO THE S OF THE UPPER TROUGH ANOTHER 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OBSERVED AT 12N137W WITH ITS RIDGE 
EXTENDING N TO A SHARP CREST AT 22N136W...AND SHIFTING RAPIDLY E 
WITH TIME ACCOMPANIED BY AN UPPER MOISTURE PLUME. UPPER DRY AIR 
IS NOTED N OF A LINE ALONG 23N140W 22N128W 27N110W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 18N105W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING W ACROSS THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E. UPPER 
DRY AIR IS ROTATING SW OVER ITS SE QUADRANT...COVERING THE UPPER 
LEVELS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 107W AND 98W. OTHERWISE...THE 
UPPER LEVELS APPEAR MOIST WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
5N130W 26N105W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N82W. ITS 
ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA 
DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 2N BETWEEN 75W AND 95W 
ENHANCING THE ITCZ E OF 90W.    

GAP WINDS...ONE SHIP REPORT CONFIRMS NLY FLOW TO 20 KT 
CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WILL CONTINUE 
WEAKENING TREND WITH WINDS BELOW 20 KT IN 18 HOURS.

$$
NELSON