000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090351 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON OCT 09 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E CENTERED NEAR 14.7N 117.3W OR ABOUT 750 NM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AT 09/0400 UTC MOVING NNW 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A NEARLY STATIONARY 1006 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 13N127W. CONVECTION IS SUBSIDING AS THIS SYSTEM SHOWS EVIDENCE OF NLY SHEAR COMMENCING. NONETHELESS...UPPER WINDS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 97W N OF 4N INTO MEXICO AND IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KNOTS. VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N79W 9N88W 10N95W 13N117W 11N122W 12N127W 10N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 88W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM OF T.D. FIFTEEN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF 1006 MB LOW NEAR 13N127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS W OF 137W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 20N... UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS TRAILING TO THE SW THROUGH 26N137W. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ALONG 138W N OF THE AREA AND AHEAD OF DEEP TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC...IS PROVIDING DRY NW FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. S OF THE AXIS...MODERATE TO STRONG WLY UPPER FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGING TO THE S. MORNING QUIKSCAT IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE NE TRADES ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF BOUNDARY LAYER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE N. WEAK VORTICITY N OF HAWAII WILL MOVE E...TO THE S OF THE UPPER RIDGE...AND REINFORCE THE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS IN THIS AREA AHEAD AS TROUGH IN CENTRAL PACIFIC MOVES TO THE N. DEPENDING ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15-E TO THE SOUTH...THE WEAKENING HIGH MAY ALLOW WINDS TO SUBSIDE THROUGH MID WEEK. FROM 10N TO 20N... UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS NOTED ROUGHLY NEAR 10N138W AND 12N116W. THE EASTERNMOST SYSTEM IS PROVIDING CONTINUOUS EXHAUST TO CONVECTION BELOW AND IS AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15-E. THE WESTERN LOW NEAR 13N127W IS EXPERIENCING NWLY SHEAR AND IS ENTRAINING DRY AIR INTO THE MID LEVELS. ELSEWHERE...SUBSIDENT NLY FLOW IS ALSO IMPEDING MOST CONVECTIVE GROWTH BETWEEN 94W AND 110W. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND THE LOW NEAR 13N127W. THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE N WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN STEERING FLOW TO THE NE WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE OTHER FORECAST ISSUE CONCERNS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MMIT AND MMMT SHOW MUCH WEAKER FLOW THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED THIN RIBBON OF 20 KT WINDS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD...GAP WINDS WILL REMAIN RELAXED UNTIL THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN A STRONG FRONT WILL ENTER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. S OF 10N... QUIKSCAT SHOWS GENERALLY MODERATE S TO SELY FLOW ACROSS THE EQUATOR. GFS IS SHOWING HINT OF SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 94W AND 115W STARTING MID WEEK PROBABLY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING S OF THE EQUATOR. $$ CHRISTENSEN