000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081544
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN OCT 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1006 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 12N118W AND IS MOVING NW 5 TO 10 
KT. A BROAD BAND OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE 
AND THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 36 HOURS.

A 1005 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 12N128W AND IS MOVING NW 5 TO 10 
KNOTS. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES OF THE DAY DO NOT 
INDICATE ANY BANDING FEATURES AND THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER IS 
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. NEVERTHELESS THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL 
TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS BOUNDED BY THE AREA FROM 
7.5N124W 11N129W 13.5N126W 10N122.5W TO 7.5N124W. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 95W N OF 4N INTO MEXICO AND IS 
MOVING W 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMAL ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N83W 10N95W 13N115W 11N120W 12N125W 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM 
S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 114W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 134W AND 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 24N...
A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 33N119W AND IS 
DRIFTING SE. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER 
TO NEAR 24N120W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW NOTED E OF THE AXIS INTO NW 
MEXICO AND W FROM THE AXIS TO NEAR 130W. A WESTERLY JET IS 
LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH FROM NEAR 
26N135W TO 24N120W ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 24N.

S OF 24N...
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE TROPICS FROM NEAR 10N TO 24N 
BETWEEN 100W AND 130W AND IS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE 
AREA OF CLOUDINESS FROM ABOUT 8N TO 17N BETWEEN 112W AND 129W.  
THE FLOW ALOFT S OF 10N IS PRIMARILY NORTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 100W 
AND 140W. THE RIDGE IS CAPPED BY A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY JET 
STRETCHING FROM 15N127W TO 20N120W TO THE MEXICAN COAST AT 25N.
CLOUD DRIFT WINDS ARE IN THE 60 TO 70 KNOT RANGE ALONG THE JET 
AXIS. A SHARP MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 13N97W.

$$
CAB