000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081005 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN OCT 08 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1006 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 10N116W IS MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE LOW IS MARKED BY A SMALL CIRCULATION CENTER AS INDICATED IN A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1040 UTC LAST NIGHT. WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS A LARGE CLUSTER OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION HAS FORMED WITHIN 80-220 NM NE OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. A 1005 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 12N128W IS MOVING W 7 KT. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS IT IS MOSTLY HIDDEN UNDERNEATH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A LARGE CLUSTER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION HAS ERUPTED JUST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITHIN 140 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE NE AND SE QUADRANTS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 35 NM OF 14N114W. ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT SHEARED...THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HRS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ESTIMATED ALONG 94W N OF 4N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 7N-9N AND ALSO FROM 12N-14N. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 30 NM OF 15N94W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 9N90W 9N100W 11N110W 10N118W 12N125W 10N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 80W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 123W-124W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W-113W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS WEST OF 137W. ISOLATED STRONG CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 82W-90W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 94W-98W. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 14N100W. ...DISCUSSION... A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF 21N EAST OF 132W WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH 32N119W SOUTHWEST THROUGH 26N124W TO 22N130W. WEST-NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR NORTH OF 22N EAST OF 130W AND NORTH OF 16N W OF 130W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND CALIFORNIA AND TO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. A MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NORTHWEST OF THE AREA NEAR 35N140W IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ABOUT 20 KT WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO 27N130W. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF THE TROUGH...AND BECOMES E-SE W OF 135W IN ABOUT 3-4 DAYS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. EAST OF THE TROUGH...THE FLOW CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TROUGHING EVEN EASTWARD TO ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. A JET STREAM BRANCH EXTENDS FROM 17N127W NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH 21N120W TO ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA WHERE IT SPLITS WITH ONE BRANCH EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SW U.S. AND THE OTHER DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM JET CORE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 65-95 KT ARE SUGGESTED BY SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA AND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH...BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN IS INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN 99W-126W. AN ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR 14N111W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THIS AREA IS AIDING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO SURFACE LOWS MENTIONED UNDER SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...THUS PROVIDING A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR THESE TWO FEATURES TO POSSIBLY ACQUIRE TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N129W SW TO 13N131W. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXISTS S OF 22N WEST OF 131W...WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 12N145W. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 13N97W TO 7N100W. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED NEAR 10N89.5W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 8N85W TO 7N83W. TO THE EAST OF TROUGH...DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL NLY FLOW PREVAILS. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA S OF 5N EAST OF 100W. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N130W 26N121W TO 23N112W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 111W. THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ITCZ IS KEEPING NE 20-25 KT TRADES FROM 11N-26W WEST OF 125W. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH NEXT FEW DAYS. AREAL COVERAGE TRADES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE LOWS. GAP WINDS...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 20-25 KT N-NE WINDS AS VERIFIED BY SHIPS WITH CALLER AIDS OF DODD AND MLFB5 AT 0600 UTC WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT IN ABOUT AND THEN TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 48 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER INTERIOR OF MEXICO WEAKENS AND LOW PRESSURE REPLACES IT. $$ AGUIRRE