000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 89W N OF 6N INTO CENTRAL AMERICA 
AND IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 112W FROM 4N TO 16N AND IS MOVING 
W 10 TO 15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS ATTACHED TO THE WAVE AT 10N. A 
QUIKSCAT PASS AT AROUND 1300 UTC INDICATES A CLOSED CIRCULATION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 112W AND 115W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 127W FROM 8N TO 15N AND IS MOVING 
W 10 KT. A 1007 MB IS ATTACHED TO THE WAVE AT 11N AND MAY 
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. EARLY 
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF 
STRONG CONVECTION LOCATED FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 123W AND 127W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N78W 10N110W 9N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS 
OF 5.7N80.3W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED 
WITHIN 60 NM OF 8.8N87.2W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 13.5N TO 15.3N BETWEEN 120W TO 125W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN A 90 
NM RADIUS OF 8.1N134.2W.

...DISCUSSION...
 
N OF 22N...
A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE FLOW OVER THE N 
PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 126W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. RIDGING ALOFT IS 
LOCATED ROUGHLY N OF 22N W OF 135W. 

S OF 22N...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 116W N OF 10N WITH 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOCATED UP 
TO 15 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. OVER THE DEEP TROPICS 
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS LOCATED S OF 8N BETWEEN 105W AND 
135W AS INDICATED BY CLOUD DRIFT WINDS. OFF THE CENTRAL AMERICA 
COAST BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE PACIFIC E OF ABOUT 96W AND 
A SHARP TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG 98W N OF 8N.

$$
CAB