000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070936 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT OCT 07 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W N OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 12N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER EL SALVADOR. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 110W FROM 5N TO 16N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. MAJORITY OF CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ AS DESCRIBED BELOW. ONLY ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE. NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LOW MAY FORM ON THIS WAVE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HRS POSSIBLY LEADING TO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 126W FROM 4N-16N WITH A 1007 MB LOW ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N126W. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 12 KT. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOT BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST 12-24 HRS...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLONIC TURNING OF LOW CLOUDS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 119W-126W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 10N122W 13N125W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 122W-125W. OTHER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MAINLY ITCZ-RELATED AS DESCRIBED BELOW. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W 10N100W 10N100W 10N110W 11N122W 10N130W 10N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 122W-126W...AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 91W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W-117W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 126W-129W...AND WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 131W-135W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W-105W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST FROM NICARAGUA SOUTHEASTWARD TO CENTRAL PANAMA. ...DISCUSSION... A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A SHARPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF 21N EAST OF 130W WITH ITS AXIS ENTERING THE REGION THROUGH 32N123W AND CONTINUING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH 26N128W TO 20N131W. WEST-NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR NORTH OF 22N EAST OF 125W AND NORTH OF 17N W OF 125W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND CALIFORNIA AND TO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. A MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NORTHWEST OF THE AREA NEAR 35N141W IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ABOUT 20 KT WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO 27N130W. WEST- NORTHWEST FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF THE TROUGH...AND BECOMES E-SE W OF 135W IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. EAST OF THE TROUGH...THE FLOW CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TROUGHING EVEN EASTWARD TO ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. A JET STREAM BRANCH ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM 17N135W NORTHEAST THROUGH 22N123W 23N115W THEN SPLITS WITH ONE BRANCH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE OTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL MEXICO. MAXIMUM JET CORE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 65-90 KT ARE SUGGESTED BY SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS NORTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA AND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH...BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN IS INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERING THE AREA WEST OF 102W. AN ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR 15N111W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THIS AREA IS HELPING TO ENHANCE ITCZ CONVECTION INCLUDING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 110W AND 126W. THESE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE ALLOWING FOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH TIME. DIFFLUENT NWLY FLOW AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS PREVAILS ELSEWHERE OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 102W. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 38N139W 1030 MB SOUTHEAST THROUGH 32N133W 27N123W TO 24N116W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 115W. THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ITCZ IS KEEPING NE 20-25 KT TRADES FROM 11N-27W WEST OF 119W. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS HOLD OF WEATHER PATTERN HERE. GAP WINDS...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 20-25 KT N-NE WINDS AS VERIFIED BY A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0020 UTC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH NEAR 48-72 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER INTERIOR OF MEXICO WEAKENS. $$ AGUIRRE