000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070334
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI OCT 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W N OF 4N MOVING W AT 15 KT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 89W AND 87W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 109W FROM 5N TO 16N MOVING W AT 10-15 
KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 108W 
AND 117W.  

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 125W FROM 3N-16N WITH A 1008 MB LOW ON 
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N125W.  THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 15 
KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 122W AND 128W. 
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION WITH THIS LOW...BUT CONVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY MODEST 
AT THE PRESENT TIME.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W 10N111W 12N125W 10N132W 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE AXIS ENHANCED 
BY TROPICAL WAVES AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AHEAD OF A 
BUILDING RIDGE ALONG 142W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NW UPPER 
FLOW AHEAD OF THE RIDGE BRINGING DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE 
FORECAST AREA N OF 23N...ENHANCING A 1029 MB SURFACE RIDGE N OF 
THE AREA. 

FURTHER S...UPPER RIDGE ALSO EVIDENT NEAR 11N112W...OVER THE 
ITCZ...PROVIDING DECENT UPPER LEVEL EXHAUST AND ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ALONG WAVE NEAR 107W. 50 TO 60 KT UPPER LEVEL WLY 
WINDS ARE EVIDENT FROM 16N140W TO SRN BAJA...BETWEEN THIS UPPER 
RIDGE AND THE SRN EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE N. 

CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED OVER TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 124W WHERE 
UPPER OUTFLOW NOT AS CONDUCIVE...EVEN THOUGH A WEAK SURFACE 
CIRCULATION IS EMERGING. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY DIVERGE TO 
THE NW AWAY FROM THE ITCZ OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND MAY 
STRENGTHEN PROVIDED UPPER WLY SHEAR TO THE N DOES NOT POSE A 
LIMITING FACTOR. EXPECT NE FRESH TRADES TO PERSIST BETWEEN THIS 
LOW AND THE RIDGE TO THE N.

20 KT GAP WIND FLOW ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES...ALTHOUGH WILL 
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE 
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN