000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062139
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI OCT 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W N OF 4N MOVING W AT 15 KT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 84W AND 
88W.  

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 107W FROM 5N-16N MOVING W AT 10-15 
KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N 
TO 11N BETWEEN 105W AND 108W.  

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 124W FROM 3N-16N WITH A 1008 MB LOW ON 
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N125W.  THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 15 
KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120NM ON SE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW 
CENTER. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION WITH THIS LOW...BUT CONVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY MODEST 
AT THE PRESENT TIME.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W 10N114W 12N124W 10N130W 
10N140W.  OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL 
WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS WEAKENING ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA N OF 
5N AND W OF 79W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EVIDENT FROM 6N 
TO 11N BETWEEN 97W AND 102W...FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 
116W...AND 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 129W AND 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AHEAD OF A 
BUILDING RIDGE ALONG 142W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NW UPPER 
FLOW AHEAD OF THE RIDGE BRINGING DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE 
FORECAST AREA N OF 23N...ENHANCING A 1029 MB SURFACE RIDGE N OF 
THE AREA. 

FURTHER S...UPPER RIDGE ALSO EVIDENT NEAR 11N112W...OVER THE 
ITCZ...PROVIDING DECENT UPPER LEVEL EXHAUST AND ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ALONG WAVE NEAR 107W. 50 TO 60 KT UPPER LEVEL WLY 
WINDS ARE EVIDENT FROM 16N140W TO SRN BAJA...BETWEEN THIS UPPER 
RIDGE AND THE SRN EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE N. 

CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED OVER TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 124W WHERE 
UPPER OUTFLOW NOT AS CONDUCIVE...EVEN THOUGH A WEAK SURFACE 
CIRCULATION IS EMERGING. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY DIVERGE TO 
THE NW AWAY FROM THE ITCZ OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND MAY 
STRENGTHEN PROVIDED UPPER WLY SHEAR TO THE N DOES NOT POSE A 
LIMITING FACTOR. EXPECT NE FRESH TRADES TO PERSIST BETWEEN THIS 
LOW AND THE RIDGE TO THE N.

20 KT GAP WIND FLOW ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES...ALTHOUGH WILL 
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE 
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN