000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061531
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI OCT 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W N OF 4N MOVING W AT 15 KT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COASTS OF 
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 82W-82W.  

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 105W/106W FROM 4N-15N MOVING W AT 10-15 
KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
5N-10N BETWEEN 103W-107W.  

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 123W FROM 3N-16N WITH A 1008 MB LOW ON 
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N123W.  THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 15 
KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR 
THE LOW CENTER FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 122W-125W.  

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W 10N115W 11N123W 10N130W 
10N140W.  OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL 
WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 76W-80W.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 85W-91W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 93W-102W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 
108W-114W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 
115W-120W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 
127W-133W.    

...DISCUSSION...

MODERATE TRADES ARE N OF THE ITCZ TO 18N BETWEEN 86W-140W WITH 
THREE EMBEDDED TROPICAL WAVES...MENTIONED ABOVE.  RIDGE OVER 
GULF OF MEXICO IS ENHANCING 20-25 KT GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC.  FURTHER N...A BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE IS W 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 18N AND E OF 140W WITH AXIS ALONG 
32N132W 20N114W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE 1008 MB 
LOW AT 11N123W IS MAINTAINING 20-25 KT TRADEWINDS AND 8-10 FT 
SEAS FROM 120W TO BEYOND 140W.   

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 115W-150W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  AN EMBEDDED UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 34N120W MOVING 
E.  A RIDGE IS FURTHER E WITH AXIS ALONG 110W.  ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW IS FROM 18N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 105W-115W.  A SMALL UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS OVER MEXICO NEAR AT 18N101W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 
15N-24N BETWEEN 97W-105W.   

$$
FORMOSA