000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061017
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI OCT 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 103W FROM 4N TO 15N IS MOVING W ABOUT
13 KT. MAJORITY OF CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ AS DESCRIBED
BELOW. ELSEWHERE ONLY ISOLATED WEAK IS WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE
WAVE. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY ORGANIZATION WITH THIS 
CONVECTION. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 122W FROM 4N-16N WITH A 1008 MB LOW ON
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N122W. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT
15 KT. ALTHOUGH VOID OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION...THE 1008 MB 
IS EXHIBITING SOME INDICATION OF SLIGHT ORGANIZATION AS REVEALED
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WHERE CYCLONIC TURNING OF CLOUDS IS 
OCCURRING FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 119W-124W. SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 10.5N122W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF LINE 10N120.5W 12N123W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W 9N92W 9N100W 9N110W 11N121W
9N132W 10N140W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 114W-118.5W
...FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 90W-100W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 106W-111W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 118.5W-130W. SCATTERED MODERATE
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGHLY A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION 
AREA WITH A SHARPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF 25N EAST
OF 127W WITH AXIS RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM A WELL-DEFINED UPPER 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA NEAR 
37N122W SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH 32N122W TO 24N123W. 
WEST-NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR FROM 
25N-32N EAST OF 130W. A MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NORTH 
OF THE AREA NEAR 32N137W IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ABOUT 20 KT 
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO 27N130W. WEST-NORTHWEST 
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR COVER THE AREA 
NORTH OF 22N WEST OF 130W. EAST OF THE TROUGH...THE FLOW IS 
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SUGGESTING RIDGING OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND 
CENTRAL MEXICO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. A JET
STREAM BRANCH ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N136W
THROUGH 22N125W 26N115W AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MAXIMUM JET CORE WINDS
ARE OF 65 KT AS SUGGESTED BY SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THESE 
WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TO THE SOUTH
OF TROUGH...BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN IS OBSERVED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN WEST OF
108W. AN ANTICYCLONIC MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED
NEAR 14N122W...AND IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION OVER THIS
AREA. THIS FLOW IS ALSO MAKING CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW ALONG 122W TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
WITH TIME. DIFFLUENT NWLY FLOW AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS 
PREVAILS ELSEWHERE OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 108W. THIS 
FLOW WAS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ GENERALLY 
BETWEEN 92W AND 100W. 

AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE EXETNDS THROUGH 32N136W 25N120W. HIGH 
PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 120W. PRESSURE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ITCZ
IS KEEPING NE 20-25 KT TRADES FROM 11N-24W WEST OF 120W. TRADES
ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS HIGH 
MAINTAINS HOLD OF WEATHER PATTERN HERE.
 
GAP WINDS...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 20-25 KT N-NE WINDS AS VERIFIED
BY A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0050 UTC LAST NIGHT WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE THROUGH NEAR 48-72W HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER INTERIOR
OF MEXICO WEAKENS.

$$
AGUIRRE