000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060302
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI OCT 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 4N TO 15N ALONG 102W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 
KT...ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ FROM 6N 
TO 10N BETWEEN 102W AND 107W. 

1007 MB LOW PRESSURE AT 11N121W CENTERED ALONG TROPICAL ACTIVE 
AT 121W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTIVE WITHIN 180 NM OF 11N121W. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W 8N93W 10N102W 10N110W 12N118W 
9N140W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL 
WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 96W...111W AND 116W...AND 
125W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH N OF 30N EXTENDS THROUGH 28N131W...ABOVE A BROAD 
BOUNDARY LAYER RIDGE CENTERED N OF 30N AND W OF 140W. FRESH NE 
TRADES ARE EVIDENT ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AHEAD OF 
THE ADVANCING TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 121W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE 
ABOVE THE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALLOWING FOR DECENT EXHAUST ALOFT AND 
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THIS SYSTEM. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT 
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES W.

MEANWHILE STRENGTHENING WINDS BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER EAST IS ENHANCING GAP 
WIND FLOW TO 20 TO 25 KT INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE 
INCREASED WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE 
TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO.

$$
CHRISTENSEN