000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052141
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU OCT 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 4N ALONG 81W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N TO THE COSTA RICAN COAST 
BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. 

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 4N ALONG 101W MOVING W AT 15 KT...ENHANCING 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 
101W AND 106W. 

ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 3N TO 17N ALONG 121W MOVING W AT 15 
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE WITHIN 180 
NM OF 10N121W. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW EVIDENCE OF 
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY BE FORMING ON 
THE WAVE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N84W 9N102W 10N121W 9N131W 10N140W. 
OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE 
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 88W...WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 90W AND 96W...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 128W AND 
134W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH N OF 30N EXTENDS THROUGH 28N131W...ABOVE A BROAD 
BOUNDARY LAYER RIDGE CENTERED N OF 30N AND W OF 140W. FRESH NE 
TRADES ARE EVIDENT ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AHEAD OF 
THE ADVANCING TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 121W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE 
ABOVE THE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALLOWING FOR DECENT EXHAUST ALOFT AND 
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THIS SYSTEM. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT 
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES W.

MEANWHILE STRENGTHENING WINDS BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER EAST IS ENHANCING GAP 
WIND FLOW TO 20 TO 25 KT INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE 
INCREASED WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE 
TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO.

$$
CHRISTENSEN