000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051522
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU OCT 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 78W N OF 4N 
MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
3N-5N BETWEEN 77W-79W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG 
THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 77W-79W.  

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 100W N OF 4N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO 
MOVING W AT 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 99W-102W.  THERE IS NO 
INDICATION OF ANY ORGANIZATION WITH THIS CONVECTION. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 118W FROM 3N-17N MOVING W 15 KT.  A LARGE 
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-14N 
BETWEEN 114W-122W.  A SURFACE LOW MAY BE FORMING ON THE WAVE 
AXIS.   

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N78W 7N90W 10N110W 11N118W 9N140W. 
OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE 
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 84W-99W...AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 103W-107W.  
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 
123W-133W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

MODERATE TRADES ARE N OF THE ITCZ TO 18N BETWEEN 86W-140W WITH 
THREE EMBEDDED TROPICAL WAVES...MENTIONED ABOVE.  STRONG RIDGE 
OVER GULF OF MEXICO IS ENHANCING 20-25 KT GAP WINDS ACROSS THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  FURTHER N...A BROAD E PAC RIDGE IS W OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 18N AND E OF 140W WITH AXIS ALONG 32N132W 
20N110W. 

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 120W-150W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  AN EMBEDDED UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 37N123W MOVING 
E.  A RIDGE IS FURTHER E WITH AXIS ALONG 110W.  ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW IS FROM 8N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 105W-120W.  A SMALL UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS OVER MEXICO NEAR AT 20N99W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 
17N-32N BETWEEN 94W-105W.   

$$
FORMOSA