000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050314
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU OCT 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W N OF 2N TO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS 
MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INDICATED 
WITHIN 1802-40 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS GENERALLY FROM 8N TO 13N. 
THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY ORGANIZATION WITH THIS 
CONVECTION. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 115W FROM 3N-15N MOVING W 15 KT.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INDICATED 
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N TO 13N. 
CONVECTION IS NOT ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N84W 10N105W 11N115W 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 133W...AND WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE AXIS FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA TO 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 105W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH 
A SHARPENING TROUGH COVERING THE AREA GENERALLY N OF 20N AND W 
OF 120W. TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION OFF THE CA COAST NEAR 37N126W SWWD THROUGH 30N127W 
TO 22N140W. FURTHER E...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 
INTER-MOUNTAIN WESTERN CONUS SWD THROUGH NRN MEXICO TO 15N112W. 
A LARGE AREA OF CONFLUENT SSWLY FLOW EXITS BETWEEN THE TROUGH 
AND RIDGE MANIFESTING ITSELF IN A 350 NM WIDE BAND OF 75-90 KT 
WINDS AS SUGGESTED BY SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THESE WINDS WERE 
ADVECTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE SW 
CONUS.  MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS 
ITSELF GENERALLY FROM 15N TO 30N BETWEEN 100W AND 115W. FURTHER 
E A SHARP BUT NARROW TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E TEXAS SWD ALONG THE E 
COAST OF MEXICO TO A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW AT THE BASE OF THE 
TROUGH NEAR TAMPICO/22N100W. DIFFLUENT WNWLY FLOW AT THE MID AND 
UPPER LEVELS PREVAILS ELSEWHERE OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 
105W. THIS FLOW WAS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ 
GENERALLY BETWEEN 90W AND 105W. 

AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE TRADES ARE N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N 
GENERALLY W OF 120W WITH TWO EMBEDDED TROPICAL WAVES...MENTIONED 
ABOVE. FURTHER N...A BROAD E PAC RIDGE IS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
AND COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N AND W OF 110W WITH AXIS ALONG 
30N130W 20N110W. 

GAP WINDS...SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES 
BANKING OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE CHIVELA PASS WHICH IS A STRONG 
SIGNAL THAT A TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS UNDERWAY WITH 
SURFACE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KT. SALINA CRUZ HAS REPORTED 
NLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A 2336 UTC 
QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES WINDS HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. NWP MODELS INDICATE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
SHOULD PERSIST OR ANOTHER 36-48 HOURS. 

$$
COBB