000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041502
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED OCT 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W/93W N OF 2N TO S MEXICO IS MOVING W 
AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
10N-13N BETWEEN 92W-96W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS NOTED ACROSS THE ITCZ FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 90W-94W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 111W/112W FROM 3N-15N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 
110W-117W.   

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N83W 10N100W 10N140W.  OTHER THAN 
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA 
FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 76W-79W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 84W-90W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 97W-102W.  
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 
97W-103W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 122W-140W. 

...DISCUSSION...

MODERATE TRADES ARE N OF THE ITCZ TO 18N BETWEEN 78W-140W WITH 
TWO EMBEDDED TROPICAL WAVES...MENTIONED ABOVE.  STRONG RIDGE 
OVER GULF OF MEXICO IS ENHANCING 20-25 KT GAP WINDS ACROSS THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  FURTHER N...A BROAD E PAC RIDGE IS W OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 17N AND E OF 130W WITH AXIS ALONG 30N130W 
21N112W. 

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 120W-155W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  AN EMBEDDED UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 37N128W.  A RIDGE 
IS FURTHER E WITH AXIS ALONG 110W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 8N 
TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 105W-120W.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
OVER MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO AT 24N98W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 
17N-32N BETWEEN 94W-105W.   

$$
FORMOSA