000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040310
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED OCT 4 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W N OF 3N MOVING W 10 KT. SURFACE CONVERGENCE 
E OF THE AXIS IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION S OF PANAMA 
WITHIN 90 NM OF 7N83W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 109W N OF 4N MOVING W 10 KT. SURFACE CONVERGENCE 
E OF THE AXIS IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM 9N TO 11N
BETWEEN 106W AND 108W.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 8N78W 8N92W 10N108W 7N128W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 7N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 127W.

...DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE FROM 35N145W TO 22N110W SPLIT BY OCCLUDED 
LOW PRES 1015MB JUST N OF AREA AT 32N133W WITH WEAK COLD FRONT FROM 
THE LOW TO 27N140W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 12 TO 
24 HOURS. MODERATE TRADES N OF ITCZ AXIS ARE LOCATED BETWEEN 10N AND 
20N W OF 120W. STRONG RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ENHANCING GAP 
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS HAVE WEAKENED TO 
10 TO 15 KT IN THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA.

AN MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM AN UPPER LOW 37N129W TO 25N140W. 
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 20N114W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SW FROM S BAJA TO 15N125W. IN BETWEEN...THE SUBTROPICAL 
JET WITH WINDS TO 80 KT EXTENDS ABOUT 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 18N140W ACROSS EXTREME NW MEXICO TO 33N113W. ANOTHER TROUGH 
EXTENDS S FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL MEXICO.

$$
MUNDELL