000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032137
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE OCT 3 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W N OF 3N MOVING W 10 KT. SURFACE CONVERGENCE 
E OF THE AXIS IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER PANAMA 
AND S INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W N OF 4N MOVING W 10 KT PRODUCING ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 8N78W 8N95W 10N108W 8N130W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION N OF 4N AND E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 127W. ITCZ CONVECTION IS 
QUITE EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE BUT FAIRLY WEAK IN INTENSITY.

...DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE FROM 35N145W TO 22N110W SPLIT BY OCCLUDED 
LOW PRES 1015MB JUST N OF AREA NEAR 33N134W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO 
DISSIPATE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. MODERATE TRADES N OF ITCZ AXIS ARE 
LOCATED BETWEEN 10N AND 20N W OF 120W. STRONG RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO IS ENHANCING GAP WINDS 20 TO 30 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
AND STRONG SW CARIBBEAN EASTERLIES ARE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KT
IN THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA.

AN MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM AN UPPER LOW 38N130W TO 25N140W. 
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 20N113W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SW FROM S BAJA TO 15N125W. IN BETWEEN...THE SUBTROPICAL JET
WITH WINDS TO 80 KT EXTENDS ABOUT 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
18N140W ACROSS EXTREME NW MEXICO TO 33N113W. 

$$
MUNDELL