000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031518
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE OCT 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W N OF 3N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS AND OVER 
PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 80W-85W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 85W-90W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 107W FROM 4N-16N MOVING W 8 KT. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
ITCZ...FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 100W-110W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 7N90W 9N107W 8N120W 9N140W. 
OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION 
...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-14N BETWEEN 90W-100W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 113W-116W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N 
BETWEEN 122W-135W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN
135W-140W.      

...DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TRADES ARE N OF THE ITCZ TO 18N BETWEEN 78W-140W WITH 
TWO EMBEDDED TROPICAL WAVES...MENTIONED ABOVE.  STRONG RIDGE 
OVER GULF OF MEXICO IS ENHANCING GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC.  STRONG SW CARIBBEAN EASTERLIES ARE ALSO PRODUCING 
SOME WINDS ACROSS THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA.  FURTHER 
N...A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE REGION NEAR 32N131W AND EXTENDS 
SW TO BEYOND 28N140W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
FRONT.  A BROAD E PAC RIDGE IS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 17N AND 
E OF 130W WITH AXIS ALONG 29N128W 23N114W. 

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 25N 
BETWEEN 120W-155W.  AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OFF THE COAST 
OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 34N129W.  A RIDGE IS FURTHER E WITH AXIS 
ALONG 113W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 8N-32N BETWEEN 
105W-120W.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 
22N100W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 17N-27N BETWEEN 93W-105W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 17N90W.  
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 7N BETWEEN 80W-105W. 

$$
FORMOSA